Sept 30, 2024 Monday Tropical Update

Gulf of Mexico system still uncertain while Kirk and Leslie loom far out in Atlantic

1. Tropical Storm Kirk well on way to becoming a very large and intense Cape Verde Hurricane. Another wave behind Kirk will also likely develop and head WNW probably becoming Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane Leslie.

2. Complicated Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico gyre circulation could spawn 2 Eastern Pacific storms and perhaps 1 or 2 Gulf of Mexico storms. NHC has 40% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexic.

3. Super Typhon Krathon to landfall Taiwan at Category 3 intensity on Wednesday

ECMWF 12z Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) shows multiple circulations across the Atlantic with Kirk and Leslie dominating the tropical Atlantic through 10-days. Kirk may become extratropical and batter Ireland/UK down the road. ECMWF HRES does not organize the Gulf of Mexico system very well, but it’s there a trackable area of low pressure, just very broad. Wind shear and proximity to a front makes the Gulf of Mexico less hospitable to tropical storms than last week with Helene.

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Atlantic IR Satellite

Not much convection across the western half of the Atlantic. However, Kirk is intensifying nicely and will be a textbook major Cape Verde Hurricane in a few days.

NHC 7-Day Outlook

The Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean system is at 40% development chance. The red area behind TS Kirk will become Leslie in the next 2-3 days.

Tropical Stork Kirk

Deep convection firing around the center of Kirk. The overall circulation is very large and suggestive of Kirk becoming a “very large” size hurricane across the open Atlantic. Ocean temperatures probably warm enough for a high-end Category 4.

NHC reaches major hurricane intensity by early Thursday.

ECMWF Ensemble tracks for Kirk have minimum pressure in the 920s - 930s.

Gulf of Mexico Gyre and Eastern Pacific Hurricanes