Sept 19, 2024 Thursday Tropical Update

Watching Gulf of Mexico in 7-8 day range

Still in wait-and-see mode for details on development of Gulf of Mexico tropical storm or hurricane, but there is plenty of model support for Helene late next week.

Global models — conventional and A.I. trained — are all pointing to a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in 7-10 days.

The ECMWF AIFS has been the most consistent showing a developing tropical storm into a hurricane by Thurs/Fri heading into the U.S. Gulf Coast. This model did a good job with Francine’s formation, and seems to understand how to generate “circulation induced” tropical cyclones.

The Caribbean gyre circulation could spawn tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific as well. This is quite a complicated pattern/circulation and is dependent upon getting small scale convective elements correct in the medium range. Therefore the overall predictability is probably lower then normal for the time being. By the end of the weekend, we should have a good handle on where likely Helene will head and at what intensity.

ECMWF AIFS (Day 8): early next Friday

AIFS has a 984 mb hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on a northerly course.