October 2, 2023 Evening Update
Summer in October
253 Million U.S. population at least 80°F on October 3, 2023 is incredible.
Eventually the worm will turn with frost/freeze threat across the Plains from the Dakotas to Kansas by this weekend.
7-day precipitation forecast from WPC: Huge rainfall across Texas and Oklahoma adding up to 2-4” with risk of flooding. Dry spell across the Southeast continues. Sad to mention but more rain in the Northeast by the weekend.
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Philippe made landfall on Barbuda with 50 mph winds. Based upon reading the NHC discussion, I think the forecasters are tired of Philippe. However, we’re going to be dealing with it for another 5-7 days before it finally gains latitude into the North Atlantic. However, there is significant uncertainty and Philippe could trend back toward Atlantic Canada in a week+. Hopefully not.
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Medium Range Outlook
The Main Development Region (MDR) is a ghost town into mid-October, likely meaning the end of the Cape Verde season. We will watch the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean for the tail end of a front to develop “close to home.” However, there’s nothing imminent.
North Atlantic ACE season-to-date is 129 and well-above average. While everyone is talking about an El Nino summer/fall, the atmosphere was not consistent with a strong 1997-98 style El Nino as the SSTs in the Eastern Pacific might suggest. I use the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) which has just crossed 0 heading toward weak warm conditions. However, in historical context, the MEIv2 is way behind 1983, 1987, 1998, and the monster 2016. This index updates around the 8th of the month.
2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
Invest 98E could become a Tropical Depression at any time. The next name on the Eastern Pacific list is Lidia (then Max). The system could become a weak hurricane in several days as it slowly tracks NW. The mesoscale (HAFS) models are not too excited about “Lidia” through 72-hours. Another system could develop right behind Lidia and also parallel the coast of Mexico into the weekend.
2023 Western Pacific Typhoon Season
Typhoon Koinu reached 100-110 knots (Category 3) but that was a struggle against strong westerly wind shear. The eye is obscured and the system is eroded on the western semi-circle due to dry mid-level air. Koinu may landfall southern Taiwan as a minimal Typhoon late Wednesday (+48 hours). The Western Pacific remains active into next week with “straight-movers” or westward tracking, more low-latitude type storms. With the Pacific becoming more active, the Atlantic can take a break.
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