October 12, 2023 Afternoon Update

Invest 94L looks more threatening

Updated NWS rainfall [3-day] totals from the powerful storm system still range from 1-3” across a number of states from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic.

The Plains storm is at full-tilt this evening. Pressure has fallen to 989 mb as the low tracks to the east across Nebraska with blustery conditions on the back side including some snow showers. A couple weeks later and there would be enough cold air to crank a blizzard out of this strong storm.

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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Medium Range Outlook

In a major modeling change, Invest 94L is now forecast to develop by ECMWF HRES and the ensembles into a powerful hurricane ( > 50% of members) in 7-days as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Since this is such a shift in guidance, it’s necessary to wait another cycle before latching onto the solution. GFS has nothing (of course) so the consensus remains to be made in the model suites.