November 4, 2024 Winter Weather Update

Tropical Storm Rafael could rapidly intensify on way to Cuba on Tuesday

Excited to see all of this snowfall across Colorado and New Mexico with the ECMWF model in order to get this Winter started. Unfortunately, no snow east of the Rockies across the Lower 48 for the next 7-days, through November 11th.

While Denver is in the 10-16” snowfall range, there are totals of 30-50 inches to the east … amazing.

Temperatures are cold enough for several days in Denver for heavy, wet snowfall. However, the GFS model does show a faster storm system and much less QPF. We’ll look at this forecast tomorrow to see what can be learned about trends and confidence with winter weather forecasts.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast | ECMWF 12z

This storm system that buries Colorado and New Mexico is part of a mobile upper-level trough that takes an interesting looping track through Arizona/New Mexico before ejecting eastward.

On the flip side, boatloads of tropical moisture continue to stream across the central U.S. ahead of that upper-level trough plus the input from TS Rafael — and its remnants. Quite an exciting weather pattern for the next several days — and hopefully a pattern shift to a colder Lower 48 across the Eastern U.S. heading into mid-November.

Election Morning Forecast | Tuesday November 5th

48-hour HRRR simulation shows the following features:

Severe weather weakens considerably into Tuesday. General rainfall across Wisconsin and Michigan turning more scattered through the afternoon hours. No excuse to not vote especially with no snow and blowing.

Snow across Colorado later on Wednesday

Severe weather underway across the central Mississippi River valley.

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
   remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the
   Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

Current Radar snapshot (MRMS) across Missouri in the 6 PM CST hour.

ECMWF AIFS 12z | Next 10-days | Height Anomaly

Pattern remains stuck on troughing across the Western U.S.

One after another … for the next 10-days+

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Atlantic Tropical Update | Tropical Storm Rafael