November 24, 2024 Sunday Winter Weather Update

Uncertain Nor'easter track for Black Friday then long-lasting Arctic blast

Sunday Headlines

1. Thanksgiving travel concerns with a storm in the Ohio Valley on Thursday heading into New England into Friday, potential for a Nor’easter, but likely only snow well inland.

2. Well below normal temperatures from a persistent cold pattern with multiple Arctic blasts east of the Rockies — through the first week of December.

3. Current 10% coupon for Annual Subscription [through November 30]. $5/month or $50/year through December 31.

Upper Level Height Pattern Next 15-days

Quick look at strong North Pacific ridging that develops into a persistent block. The eastern U.S. is in the right place for continual dumps of Arctic cold air with trough after trough.

Way down the road at Day 14: December 8

We’ll watch the forecast trends in the coming days to say more about the intensity and longevity of this major Arctic cold into December.

850 mb temperature anomaly map looks very “Polar Vortex” + Barney colored. Serious stuff.

Day 10 AIFS 12z also very cold

Next 8-Days Weather Precipitation Type | ECMWF 12z

(a) Western U.S. finally gets a break

(b) Ohio Valley low tracks into New England on Thus/Friday

(c) Cold Arctic high pressure follows for next weekend

Thanksgiving Day Morning

Thanksgiving Day Evening

A lot of potential here!

Into Black Friday 986 mb in the Gulf of Maine

Sunday Afternoon Across the Lower 48

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HRRR | Radar Simulation through Tuesday afternoon

Storm system over Lake Superior could dump up to 6-8 inches of system snow especially on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Sunday evening front positions

Low Temperatures on Monday

High Temperatures on Monday

Snowfall Forecasts

ECMWF 12z | 7-day Ensemble Median Snowfall

15-day Ensemble Median Snowfall

15-day Ensemble % chance of at least 6-inches of snowfall

Good way to pinpoint larger snow storms or Nor’easters. Not much along the New England coastline including NYC and Boston. Not cold enough, yet.

NOAA Blend of Models 10-day Snowfall Accumulation

Quick peek at the Blend of Models showing the “ensemble” smoothing.

Total Precipitation next 7-Days | NOAA WPC

EPS 12z | 5-Day Chunk Temperature Anomaly

Days 1-5: November 24 - November 28

Days 6-10: November 29 - December 3

Days 11-15: December 4 - December 8

Snowfall Analysis | October 1, 2024 — today

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