One more update on Google’s Deep Mind GraphCast A.I. weather model. [Google published a paper on their global weather modeling system called GraphCast that uses A.I. to train on historical data (ERA5) and forecast the future.]
I stretched out the forecast verification to 10-days for both the HRES deterministic and EPS ensemble mean matched up against GraphCast.
The EPS ensemble mean at 10-days handily beats its deterministic (unperturbed) member as well as GraphCast. The public claims of superior skill made by Google were for GraphCast vs. the HRES. That’s an important distinction that took me a couple days to prove with these verification stats.
GraphCast can skillfully reproduce synoptic patterns at Day 10 but not to the same extent as the fully loaded NWP EPS mean. Not yet anyway.
Friday’s High Temperatures
Over 107 million Americans hitting at least 70°F. And 23 million at least 80°F in Florida, Texas, and the Southwest. Colder air filtering into the Great Lakes and upper-Midwest. That’s it for the 60s and 70s that we saw on Thursday all the way into the U.P. of Michigan (Go Blue).
Week 1 and Week 2 Temperature Anomaly
The ECMWF facility in Bologna, Italy suffered a catastrophic power outage, so the 12Z EPS products are not yet available as of 6 pm ET.
Above Normal Temperatures for the next several days but those are replaced with a pattern flip in Week 2 and below average temperatures across the Lower 48 with surges of colder Arctic air to finish out November. Alaska warms up after a record month of heavy snowfall in Anchorage.
Week 1: November 16-23 [EPS Mean 00z]
Week 2: November 23-30 [EPS Mean 00z]
Snowfall over next 15-days
15-day Total Snowfall and Probability from 51-member EPS ensembles [median]
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