November 1, 2024 Winter Weather Update

Hurricane season continues in Caribbean with 80% of development

Welcome to November 2024

I am a bit weary of hurricane season so I’d like to start with some winter weather maps. Snowfall across the western U.S. from a trough and decent amount of Pacific moisture.

HRRR snowfall totals (using a dynamic snow ratio based upon 2-meter temperature) over the next 48-hours shows the accumulations at higher elevations. The high resolution of the model (2.5 km) nicely shows the individual peaks and valleys as the precipitation moves east into Colorado.

The 3-day snowfall forecast from NWS for Denver is 1-inch (!) with up to 15-inches across the Front Range.

Extending to 10-days with the Blend of Models shows enormous snowfall totals expected for Colorado in particular.

10-Day Precipitation Forecast | ECMWF 12z

Turns out that Colorado is a collection area for moisture from the Pacific Northwest which forms 2 storm systems in the Lee of the Rockies. The tropical influence from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will combine with upper-level energy to dump boatloads of rainfall on the central U.S. in the next 7-10 days. Still waiting here in the Southeast for a drink.