May 24, 2025 Saturday Weather Update

Memorial Day Heavy Rain

Saturday’s Weather Headlines:

1. Heavy rain and storms across the Lower Mississippi River Valley along a frontal boundary that will see repeated storm complexes rolling through the weekend.

2. Atlantic tropical update: not expecting any development through at least 10 days into early June. No pre-season storms.

3. Global models agreement — Eastern Pacific to see first storm [Alvin] before end of the month. NHC is up to 70% chance in 7-days in the Outlook.

4. Cooler/well below normal temperatures from Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast keep a lid on any heat wave discussion until probably June

5. Memorial Day Washout in same locations as seeing rain today

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Today’s Weather | Saturday

Slight chance of severe weather mainly gusty winds and large hail.

Current Satellite Imagery

Still clouds from the lingering Nor’easter but eroding in the Great Lakes. Huge convective blowup with a complex of storms rolling ESE out of Oklahoma and Missouri into Arkansas into the Southeast.

Radar Loop: 10:08 AM ET

Storms in SE Oklahoma have some history of severe wind gusts. Otherwise, drenching rain across a large area that does not need any more.

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the primary source regions for the heavy rain across TX/OK and Mississippi River Valley. Tropical easterly flow across Central America will consolidate and circulate into Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Alvin by Wednesday.

Memorial Day Simulated Radar | RRFS-A 06Z

Experimental model (RRFS-A) extended for Monday (48-72 hours) shows the widespread storms from OK/TX and then moving SE along the stalled frontal boundary.

Rainfall for Monday from RRFS

Showers and storms during the day in Florida. Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast look mainly dry and comfortable

NWS Precipitation next 72-Hours

Large area of 2”+ from DFW to OKC and over to Nashville. Highest amounts of > 6” across NW Arkansas.

Florida rainfall | Next 72-hours

1-2” would be quite welcome to break up the intense heat from the strong subtropical ridge.

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 18-hours through Sunday 1 AM ET

Radar through the rest of today (Saturday) shows more storms/rain in the central Plains on a general ESE trajectory into the Mississippi River Valley … maybe these storms hold together into evening for Atlanta.

TROPICS