March 7, 2024 Weekend Storm

Potential flooding rains again in the Southeast

The last 30-days of precipitation (rain and snow) across the Lower 48 is 100% of normal or right on the dot average for the past 30-years. However, it’s not evenly distributed at all with much below normal precipitation across the Plains into the Midwest. The Southeast centered upon Atlanta is wet as well as the Mid-Atlantic. Not much snow to end winter, but plenty of rainfall.

We need to monitor the dryness across the Plains over the next several weeks as drought indicators may start increasing heading into April.

Short Term | Next 3-days

The next storm system is forming across the central U.S. and will track through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Sunday. The frontal system will have plenty of Gulf of Mexico and subtropical moisture leading to a flood threat in the Southeast.

On the backside of the low, there is enough cold air to drop snowfall especially away from the New England coast Sunday into Monday.

Over the next 3-days, the NWS rainfall shows another band of 2-4 inches across the Southeast including Atlanta, which does not need anymore rain.

Friday High Temperatures | March 8, 2024

Quite warm ahead of the front and storm system on Friday up into Cleveland well into the 60s. 80s in Florida for Spring Break.

7-Day Rainfall Total

Another major storm system to impact the West Coast later next week.

Medium Range | Next 10-15 Days

Experimental ECMWF AIFS modeling:

Still marking Tuesday March 19, 2024 as a day to watch for a trough with Arctic air — albeit mid-March, almost Spring, cold air with the “polar vortex” plunge into the Southeast. Need to watch for a frost/freeze into Atlanta in 12-days.

5-Day Temperature Anomaly Chunks | Next 15-Days

This final period shows the threat of colder air w/ensemble mean of -5 to -6°F compared to normal. However, this is a strong signal for cooler air, and the magnitude will increase as the ensembles sharpen.

Next 10-Days Weather | ECMWF 12z HRES

The next storm system crossing the central U.S. will be the following weekend with western U.S. / Pacific moisture crashing onshore.

15-day ECMWF Ensemble Mean Snowfall

15-Day ensemble median is still lit up for interior New England — quite the end to winter! And, still some Lake Effect snowfall chances behind a Canadian Arctic cold front in Week 2.

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