March 16, 2024 Cooler Week Ahead
Last week of winter will be chilly across Eastern U.S.
Severe weather in South Texas produced huge hail west of Houston. In Bellville, residents saw tennis and baseball sized hail pelting the area with a thick accumulation covering the ground.
The hail core from the thunderstorm was in excess of 70 dbz on the radar. Local meteorologist Shel Winkley noted that trees had not budded as of yet likely limiting severe tree damage.
The lightning tracks from the supercells show their long duration and intensity.
The same area will be under threat from severe weather later on Saturday as a stalled cold front lingers across South Texas extending into the Southeast U.S.
A Clipper system and cold front whips through the Midwest into the Great Lakes by Sunday morning with much cooler air behind. While mid-March is the very end of winter, there is still plenty of cold Arctic air available for deposit on the Lower 48 with enough moisture for scattered snow flurries or light snow showers. Thankfully, there is no major winter storm on the horizon.
An upper-level low continues to spin over the Four Corners leading to major snowfall across New Mexico at higher elevations.
HRRR 11z forecast simulated radar shows the threat of severe weather from Laredo into San Antonio by later this evening.
Climatology | High Temperatures
The average high temperature on March 19 is about 65°F in Atlanta, in the upper 40s in Chicago, Detroit, and NYC. Phoenix and Miami are typically at least 80°F.
By April 2 — 2 weeks later — we can add 5°F to 7°F to the average highs across most of the Lower 48 with 60s extending into the Ohio River Valley.
So, when we see “below normal” temperatures on an anomaly map, we should take into account that early spring is considerably warmer week after week. While we “on average” add warmth, the weather is just that — weather and various systems and air masses have extremes in both cold/warm direction.
High Temperatures Next 8-Days
Below normal temperatures will extend across the Midwest and Great Lakes to New England through the next week. Gone are the 60s and 70s — instead replaced with highs in the 30s and 40s — roughly 10°F below normal. The Canadian Arctic air is still very cold and the worst of it remains bottled up at higher latitudes. However, northwesterly flow with troughs will allow blasts of this colder air to make it into the Southeast.
Freeze Threat for Southeast on Tuesday
Low temperatures will be at/below freezing for 50% of the Lower 48 area / real estate wise with 32°F reaching Atlanta and potentially the western Florida panhandle and near the Gulf Coast in Alabama. Hopefully this frost/freeze does not cause lasting damage but tender vegetation like my house plants probably should not be outside unless covered up.
Weather Pattern Next 8-days
Continental air mass: cool but fair weather across most of the Lower 48 east of the Rockies for the entire week
Exceptions include weak Clipper systems across the Great Lakes with light snowfall
And the southern Gulf of Mexico stream of moisture with stalled cold fronts will continue the wet pattern
The Western U.S. ridge is replaced with trough and unsettled weather in 6-7 days.
7-Day Rainfall Total | NWS WPC
The next 7-Day rainfall totals show 2-3” in Texas extending into Florida.
Dry in the Plains from Kansas to the Dakotas including all of Iowa into Indianapolis.
Day 5 to 9 Average Temperature Anomaly
This map shows the intensity of cold air anomaly centered over Canada for Wed 20th to Sun 24th more than 15°F up to 20°F below normal.
The below normal temperatures extend into the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.
Thank you to Subscribers and Supporters! Almost Spring 2024 and the growing season — so much is going on in the world of weather! Please come along for the ride!