June 9, 2025 Hurricane Season Monday

Eastern Pacific busy while Atlantic remains quiet for next 7-10 days at least

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 9]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

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Monday’s Tropical Update

1. Atlantic Basin: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 16) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are mostly blank for next 2-weeks.

2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Tropical Storm Barbara (02E) forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane perhaps later this morning. Tropical Storm Cosme (03E) may rapidly intensify according to HAFS-A model guidance. Another system may form by this weekend (60% chance).

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Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

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ECMWF 00Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

Eastern Pacific: Barbara (02E) and Cosme (03E) blend together after a couple days with the former weakening rapidly over cooler waters. Cosme may become a hurricane.

Another system forms this weekend and follows a similar path to Barbara parallel to southern coast of Mexico.

Strong easterly moisture through the Caribbean reaches the Yucatan and turns decisively north into the Mississippi River valley helping to fuel thunderstorms and heavy rain continuously across the Plains and Eastern U.S.

A couple frontal systems with Canadian troughs break down the Bermuda high by Days 7-10.

No tropical cyclone formation likely in the Atlantic basin in the next 10-days+

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Precipitable Water Next 5-days | Atlantic Basin

We need > 2” PWAT to fire up a tropical storm or a hurricane.

PWAT remains mostly under 2” in the Gulf and Caribbean w/o a trigger for tropical cyclone development. The ITCZ/monsoon trough is flat with a sharp gradient south of the Saharan Air Layers, but some breakdown by Day 5 in the central Atlantic.

Tropical Atlantic | Precipitation and MSLP Next 10-days