June 9, 2020 Tropical Update: Cristobal heads for Great Lakes

The storm has weakened to a depression but continues to be a major rainmaker

Cristobal still a Tropical Depression for a little while longer

The Weather Prediction Center (NOAA) creates a wonderful surface chart every morning that highlights the active weather expected during the day. At 8 AM ET, the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was making its way through Missouri. The forecast track continues into Iowa and Wisconsin through Wednesday when it will become post-tropical.

Strong winds will spread across the Great Lakes including Chicago with gusts over 40-mph later Tuesday evening.

For an early June tropical storm, Cristobal was fairly typical in that it was poorly organized with rainfall being the major threat. However, since it was a fast mover and didn’t stall like TS Allison from 2001, the flooding was localized and damages will not be significant.

Gulf of Mexico sea-surface mixed and cooled a bit

The Gulf of Mexico prior to the development of Cristobal was significantly warmer than normal but that has changed especially across the central and eastern side of the basin. The mixing from the large wind field helped upwell cooler water below the surface and lower the overall sea-surface temperature. This effect will be quite temporary as the warm sunshine and 90° temperatures during the day will continue to warm the water.

Low chance of subtropical storm east of Bermuda

Only a 10% chance of development into a tropical system in the next 48-hours. Nothing else going on in the Atlantic.