June 7, 2025 Tropical Update Weekend

Eastern Pacific south of Mexico with 2 Invests with high chances

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 7]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

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Saturday’s Tropical Weather Headlines

1. Atlantic tropical update: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 14) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are blank for 15-days (June 21).

2. Eastern Pacific tropical update: We now have 2 areas being watched within the monsoon trough with high chance of development in the next 24-hours.

3. Saharan Dust / Air Layer continues to fill the eastern tropical Atlantic with one weak tropical wave crossing the basin.

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Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

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ECMWF 00Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

Two areas of cyclonic circulation developed out of the monsoon trough rather close together. Each could become a tropical depression or storm but not much more before reaching cooler water. By later next week, another system is likely to develop, perhaps getting an earlier / eastward start and becoming a hurricane. And, at Day 10, the process repeats a bit further east off Panama coast. See the trend? Maybe then at/after Day 15 or so, the Atlantic can see something develop?

No tropical cyclone formation likely in the Atlantic basin in the next 10-days+