June 30, 2024 Tropical Update: Major Hurricane Beryl

Beryl has rapidly intensified to Category 4 east of the Caribbean

Hurricane Beryl has rapidly intensified to Category 4 — 130 mph (115-knots) with a clear warm eye (+20°C) and cloud-tops canopy in the -63°C range matching the satellite algorithms (CIMSS-ADT) closely. Beryl could gain a bit more strength but I do not see Category 5 as too likely. This is at about 11°N latitude where significant warm, deep water is fueling Beryl — but very light or non-existent wind shear is not inhibiting the system, rare for late June into early July.

ECMWF Ensemble Envelope of Solutions (12Z) through 10-days

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USA Impacts down the road?

We can’t completely foreclose the possibility of a track/bend into Texas especially with the skill of a 7-10 day forecast! Too many ensemble members.