June 20, 2024 Tropical Update: Alberto Makes Landfall

2 more areas of disturbed weather show potential development

Headlines for Thursday

1. Tropical Storm Alberto making landfall in Mexico with 45-knot winds.

2. Chance of another system in the Bay of Campeche as the Central American Gyre continues to generate convection over Central America and the Yucatan. NHC gives the system 50% chance of tropical cyclone development.

3. Invest 92L is the system off the U.S. Southeast coast and has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development, but will likely remain rather weak in a marginal environment with dry air and high background pressure.

Invest 92L -- off the U.S. Southeast coast

A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  

While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression while the low moves WNW at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Invest 92L looks promising on visible satellite imagery but the convection is scattered and inhibited by dry air and environmental high pressure.

The strongest winds are the surface and lower-levels will be to the north of the center of circulation mainly due to the gradient with stronger high pressure to the north with the “heat dome”

Normalized anomaly of MSLP shows the small surface pressure reflection of Invest 92L bumping into the strong heat dome ridge.

There is a surface circulation and low-level vorticity + moisture available especially when looking at the Precipitable Water (PWAT) from model forecast. I think we will have a weak TD or TS Beryl by Friday.

ECMWF 06z | Invest 92L

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10-Days Integrated Vapor Transport