June 19, 2025 Hurricane Season Thursday

Hurricane Erick made landfall in Mexico at nearly Category 4 intensity

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 19]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

Thursday’s Tropical Update

1. Atlantic Basin: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 26) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are (mostly) blank for next 2-weeks — through the end of June without a named storm.

2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Hurricane Erick is rapidly weakening over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Flossie — the next system is on the way in 7-8 days in the same area as previous storms.

3. Western Pacific Basin: A subtropical cyclone could develop east of Japan but no other development expected in 5-7 days.

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Major Hurricane Erick late Wednesday

Erick prior to landfall early Thursday morning

Automated Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) in real-time showed raw T values of 6.9 with the small eye and cold convection around the eyewall. However, the eye did not clear but became disrupted perhaps due to the proximity to land. Whatever the reason, the intensity max was 125-knots in line with a consensus of various Dvorak estimates.

The NHC working best-track estimated the minimum central pressure at 939 mb and 125-knot winds with Category 4 intensity for 12-hours. It was noted that the Erick’s structure degraded significantly prior to landfall, so while a major hurricane, it was no longer intensifying upon the less defined center’s crossing the coast.

ECMWF 00Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 8-days