June 17, 2025 Hurricane Season Tuesday
Tropical Storm Erick potential to become a major hurricane
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 16]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.
Tuesday’s Tropical Update
Atlantic Basin: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 24) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are blank for next 2-weeks — through the end of June without a named storm.
Eastern Pacific Basin: Tropical Storm Erick could become a major hurricane if rapid intensification unfolds in the next 24-48 hours. The small system is over warm water in a favorable environment.
Western Pacific Basin: No activity expected for the next 7-days.
ECMWF 00Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 8-days
Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Erick (05E) develops into a hurricane south of Mexico / Guatemala with the resulting moisture dragged across southern Texas into the Plains and a powerful midlatitude storm system over the Midwest and Great Lakes by next weekend. The mountainous terrain of Mexico will dissipate the surface circulation of Erick.
No tropical cyclone formation likely in the Atlantic basin in the next 7-10 days+
Tropical Atlantic | Precipitation and MSLP Next 10-days | ECMWF 00z
Typical showers and storms with the monsoon trough / ITCZ from the central Pacific to the central Atlantic. Only development in the next 7-10 days is Erick (05E) in the Eastern Pacific.
Atlantic Basin Outlook
Nobody home for next 7-days.
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