June 16, 2025 Hurricane Season Monday

Invest 94E to become Erick in Eastern Pacific south of Mexico

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 16]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

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Monday’s Tropical Update

1. Atlantic Basin: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 23) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are blank for next 2-weeks — end of June without a named storm.

2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Invest 94E high chance (90%) to become Erick with landfall in southern Mexico in 3-4 days.

3. Western Pacific Basin: No activity expected for the next 7-days.

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ECMWF 00Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

Eastern Pacific: Invest 94E (—> Erick) develops into a hurricane south of Mexico / Guatemala with the resulting moisture dragged across southern Texas into the Plains and a powerful midlatitude storm system over the Midwest and Great Lakes by next weekend. The mountainous terrain of Mexico should dissipate the surface circulation of Erick and redevelopment in the Gulf of Mexico is highly unlikely.

No tropical cyclone formation likely in the Atlantic basin in the next 7-10 days+

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Tropical Atlantic | Precipitation and MSLP Next 10-days | ECMWF 00z

Typical showers and storms with the monsoon trough / ITCZ from the central Pacific to the central Atlantic. Only development in the next 7-10 days is Invest 94E into a tropical storm south of Mexico.

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Height Anomaly Next 10-days

A series of shortwave troughs across the Western U.S. replaces ridging that has caused extreme heat across the Southwest. This forces a downstream response into the weekend of ridging across the Northeast U.S. and skyrocketing temperatures for NYC well into the 90s and perhaps lower-100s peaking next Tuesday (101°F).

Atlantic Basin Outlook