June 13, 2025 Hurricane Season Friday

Tropical Storm Dalila off southern Mexico coastline

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 13]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

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Friday’s Tropical Update

1. Atlantic Basin: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 20) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are mostly blank for next 2-weeks with some mischief in the far western Gulf.

2. Eastern Pacific Basin: Tropical Storm Dalila (04E) formed

3. Western Pacific Basin: Tropical Storm Wutip (01W) may still become a typhoon prior to landfall in next 12-24 hours

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Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

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ECMWF 12Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 8-days

Similar story as yesterday with strong easterly flow continuing with increasing IVT piling up across the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean and then into the western Gulf of Mexico — all steered by the strong, persistent subtropical high / ridge anchored over Bermuda and the Azores.

The middle latitudes are active with storm systems and troughs dipping into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast grabbing this tropical moisture and firing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall — typical of early Summer pattern. This is not a favorable upper-level situation for development of a “heat dome” instead a highly progressive / rapidly changing pattern.

Eastern Pacific: In addition to Dalila, small chance of another storm later next week (20%).

No tropical cyclone formation likely in the Atlantic basin in the next 7-10 days+

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Tropical Atlantic | Precipitation and MSLP Next 10-days | ECMWF 12z