June 12, 2025 Hurricane Season Thursday

Next system in Eastern Pacific will be named Dalila and could reach hurricane intensity

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Day 12]. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 0 named storms, 0 hurricane, and 0 majors.

Colorado State University updated their seasonal forecast for June 11, 2025, but didn’t change the headline numbers of 17/9/4 with ACE of 155. My expectations are lower based upon significantly cooler water in the central tropical Atlantic unfavorable upper-level winds consistent with a more “Nino-like” Pacific horseshoe SST pattern.

---

Thursday’s Tropical Update

1. Atlantic Basin: No areas being watched through the next 7-days (June 19) by NHC and the ECMWF ensembles are blank for next 2-weeks.

2. Eastern Pacific Basin: A new system is forming for this weekend (04E —> Dalila)

3. Western Pacific Basin: Wutip (01W) is the basin’s first tropical storm and is heading to southern China perhaps as a strong TS or minimal Typhoon.

---

Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

---

ECMWF 00Z | Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 8-days

Strong easterly flow continues with increasing IVT piling up across the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean and then into the western Gulf of Mexico — all steered by the strong, persistent subtropical high / ridge anchored over Bermuda and the Azores in mid-June.

The middle latitudes are active with storm systems and troughs dipping into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast grabbing this tropical moisture and firing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall — typical of early Summer pattern. This is not a favorable upper-level situation for development of a “heat dome” instead a highly progressive / rapidly changing pattern.

Eastern Pacific: At least 1 more storm / hurricane (Dalila) in 7-days [NHC at 90%], and then another area of disturbed weather to its east by June 18-20 (10-20%)

No tropical cyclone formation likely in the Atlantic basin in the next 7-10 days+

---

Tropical Atlantic | Precipitation and MSLP Next 10-days