June 10, 2024 Tropical Update: Gulf of Mexico moisture plume

The first named system in each basin possible in next 10-days

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• Area off SE USA coast could see a hybrid or tropical storm development by this weekend —> Alberto

• Vorticity in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico could make landfall and enter southern Gulf of Mexico in 7-8 days

• Enormous rainfall totals for Florida and then Texas by Day 10

The atmospheric river diagnostic called Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) works nicely in the tropics to highlight the convergence of deep tropical moisture into plumes across the Gulf of Mexico into Florida.

Next 10-days from ECMWF of IVT:

Watch the development of 2 tropical systems — could be 3 depending upon the survival of the vorticity across Mexico from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the Bay of Campeche.

First the 850 hPa relative vorticity off the FL/SE USA coast with intensification as it heads NE into the Atlantic before reaching Newfoundland by Day 10.