July 6, 2020 Tropical Update

New Depression in the Eastern Pacific will become a Hurricane

Tropical Depression 05E

Have to admit that I’m a bit excited to actually be following something in the tropics that has potential to reach hurricane status — and only mix fish well away from land. The NHC designated Tropical Depression 05E south of the coast of Mexico and forecasts the system to intensify (perhaps rapidly) into a (near) major hurricane over the next 3-5 days. This is a typical or climatological track of an Eastern Pacific hurricane. The genesis or origin is near 10°N latitude where the sea-surface temperatures are very warm (> 29°C) with a track WNW eventually to spin down over cooler waters.

The HWRF simulated near-surface wind speed is at major hurricane intensity with 963 mb central pressure. I would give high odds that 05E becomes major hurricane Cristina.

And, then in the wake of this system we should see another hurricane. This is also rather typical to have at least 2 in a row as the environmental conditions are favorable for multiple storms in a 7-10 day time window. The next storm will be named Douglas.

North Atlantic

I know we are burning through the alphabet with Edouard coming and going without much fanfare. But these are not truly the “meat of the season” hurricanes that matter in the Atlantic tropics. So, what is coming down the pike — meaning the Main Development Region extending from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles? Ghosts! This is a snapshot of potential sea-level pressure contours (storms) a week from Saturday (Day 12). While the situation can change in the meantime, this is a strong suppression signal in the ECMWF ensembles for no tropical storm activity.

Maps from https://weathermodels.com (WeatherModels.com)