July 29, 2024 Monday Tropical Wave Update
More confidence in track of tropical wave off the Southeast Coast
A tropical wave with almost no shower activity — a dry wave — embedded within stable, African/Saharan dust layer air is tracking WNW across the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. NHC now gives a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 7-days in an area centralized over the Bahamas.
However, steering flow due to a “heat dome” over the eastern U.S. favors a “recurve” track but uncertainty about impacts to Florida east coast, up to Carolinas, and Northeast. Good news: ensemble modeling does not indicate extreme intensity any long as previous forecast cycles showed last week. Indeed, GFS/GEFS barely registers the tropical wave and can not be bothered to develop it.
IR Satellite
Not much in the way of shower activity across the entire tropical Atlantic evidence of the influence of Saharan Air Layer.
NHC analyzed (00z) the tropical wave just east of 40°W but without any convection.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the trough axis south of 13N.
ECMWF 00z HRES Model Solution | 10-days
My favorite parameter Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) shows the WNW track of the tropical wave with moisture along the northern periphery. As the wave approaches the Bahamas, it undergoes cyclogenesis and turns to the North. The Bermuda high provides the eastern/rightward steering channel allowing the trough off the east coast to create a weakness for the wave to escape to the NNE.
ECMWF 00Z HRES no longer has a powerful system off the U.S. Southeast coast. Instead, the tropical wave is at most a mid-range tropical storm with central pressure still above 1000 mb. The next name is Debby on the NHC Atlantic list. We need to look at the ensembles and AI solutions next:
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