July 22, 2024 Monday Update
Mostly quiet period ahead with unsettled weather across the South
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Monday Headlines
Upper-level pattern slowly transitions from the central US / Mississippi Valley trough to more ridging across the Northeast into the weekend (warming) and the western U.S.
ECMWF AIFS (06z) did not show tropical storm activity through 10-days in the vicinity of the Lower 48.
Monday Weather
The stationary front extending from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic will focus thunderstorm activity (non-severe) and keep temperatures down with cloud-cover. While painters might not like this weather, it is a bonus to have this rainfall into late-July to mitigate ongoing dryness or drought. Rainfall over the next 72-hours is heavy across Texas including Houston, Florida, and the Carolinas.
Monday and Tuesday High temperatures: the 90s have been reduced to 1/4 of the Lower 48 land footprint and only 72 million population.
The 90s increase slightly on Tuesday, but again the Midwest and Northeast are more mild in the 80s. Comfortable for late-July.
Atlantic Tropics are showing signs of action in early August but remain dead through the remainder of July 2024. The ECMWF ensembles go through August 6, and a few member show hurricanes.
Western Pacific Typhoon Gaemi (05W):
The JTWC has not upgraded Gaemi to a typhoon, but satellite imagery shows a significant Category 1-2 system with -90°C cloud tops and an eyewall on microwave imagery.
Landfall is possible in northern Taiwan and then China at potentially major typhoon intensity.
Atlantic Basin GeoColor Satellite Imagery
Another dust cloud (major one) coming off Africa and beginning its journey across the Atlantic.
NWS WPC 7-Day Precipitation Forecast | Watering Needs
15-Day Precipitation Anomaly (%)
Very wet across Texas in aggregate over the next 2-weeks
Weekly Temperature Anomaly
EPS Week 1: July 22-28, 2024
EPS Week 2: July 29-Aug 4, 2024
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Confused in Eastern MA. You are reporting 0 - 15 day precipitation anomaly and local forecasters are predicting 3" - 8" of rain (Central MA and lower Cape Cod) over the next 48 hours. Quite a disparity!