July 17, 2024 Wednesday Update: Final Day of Extreme Heat

Canadian cool front eventually stalls out across Southeast

Wednesday Headlines

1. Final day of extreme heat along the east coast / mid-Atlantic including Washington D.C. which hit 104°F on Tuesday. Back to seasonal / normal or slightly cooler than normal temperatures.

   

   70s in the upper-Midwest including Minneapolis. Stunning weather ahead for the next 7-10 days, or longer across the Great Lakes.

   

2. Long duration cool period across the central U.S. including Texas. Temperatures in Dallas will be comfortably in the upper-80s with lows in the mid-70s instead of 100s. Amazing!

   

   

3. Atlantic Tropics remain dead through the remainder of July 2024. The ECMWF ensembles do show some stray tracks, but nothing imminent or strong signals of tropical cyclone genesis. Not much going on in the Eastern Pacific without a hurricane through end of July? Looks like it.

   

   

Wednesday’s Weather

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging thunderstorm gusts appear most likely and concentrated
   today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central/southern New
   England.

Rainfall next 30-hours

HRRR 18-hour Forecast Simulation

Thursday and Friday High Temperatures

The cold front continues slowly into the Southeast and cools temperatures significantly with unsettled weather = pop-up showers & cloud debris keeping hundreds of millions of Americans much cooler than usual for mid-July.

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Atlantic Basin Satellite Imagery

Nothing brewing in the Atlantic tropics — suppressed by African dust layers.

NASA GEOS5 Dust Forecast | Next 10-Days

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NWS WPC 7-Day Precipitation Forecast | Watering Needs

7-day rainfall amounts continue to increase from Texas into the Carolinas. I’ll take 3-inches of rainfall in Atlanta for my grass.

10-Day Precipitation Anomaly (%)

Weekly Temperature Anomaly

EPS Week 1: July 17-23, 2024

Exceptional heat over Pacific NW and western Canada.

Look at the huge below normal area over the Plains!

EPS Week 2: July 23-29, 2024

The hottest weather remains centered over southern Canada.

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