January 21, 2025 Gulf Coast Storm

Historic snowfall on way for Florida

Good Afternoon!

The winter storm across the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Carolinas today is over-performing even the most aggressive model forecasts. Many hours of heavy snowfall including actual blizzard criteria in Louisiana to near Pensacola, Florida has made travel treacherous especially along Interstate 10. And, in the past 2 hours, snowfall has again picked up in Atlanta with probably 3” or more on the southern side of the Metro. Unreal.

HRRR 19Z simulated radar shows an enormous QPF slug (> 1” of moisture) coming out of the very warm Gulf of Mexico up and over Arctic air only in the 20s across much of the Deep South. Note how many hours of full-snowfall from Tallahassee to Savanah.

Total snowfall from the HRRR internal algorithm not including freezing rain, but probably some notion of sleet.

I would not be surprised to see 6” in Tallahassee and then upwards of 10” into Southeast Georgia and into Wilmington, North Carolina.

NWS has been playing catchup all day with nowcasting efforts. I don’t think this is a very effective way to forecast these events — as you don’t get to see the high-end scenarios, which have come to fruition. While the NWS forecast on weather dot gov says 1” but there is a legitimate shot at 6”, then you might make different decisions on taking that drive down the freeway or sending the kids off to school. What a communications nightmare from meteorologists.

The Lower 48 remains in the grips of a major Arctic blast — lobe of the tropospheric circumpolar vortex — with coldest air in the Great Lakes with subzero temperatures around Chicago.