January 13, 2025 Monday Extended Outlook

Hope for warming into late January

Good Evening! A lot going on in the weather world that is very impactful.

The first 2 weeks of January probably surprised a lot of cynical winter weather naysayers who seem to always expect “torch” conditions these days. However, with the transition to La Nina and seemingly much easier ability of the tropospheric polar vortex to extend lobes into the subtropics, we saw a lot of snowfall across the Lower 48 except, of course, in two notable locations: New York City and Boston.

We are seeing a growing deficit across California’s mountains with very little precipitation in recent weeks as atmospheric rivers have been directed by the Pacific storm track (and jet) into the Pacific Northwest, Canada, and now into Alaska.

Snowfall Last 2-weeks

Snowfall Next 2-weeks

We use the ensembles to provide the median outcome for snowfall over the next 2-weeks at every location. Plenty of Lake Effect snowfall, but not a strong signal for a Nor’easter or a storm system like we just saw from Kansas to D.C.

However, that’s not surprising as chances of significant snow are quite low at least for the next 7-10 days without storm systems aside from Clippers.

The median will only show snow if more than half of the members have snowfall.

So, we switch to probability thresholds: 2-week greater than 1-inch of snowfall.

And zoom in the Southeast: 14-22% chance of snowfall in Atlanta and even 2% into the Gulf Coast and Tallahassee.

25% or so chance around Dallas-Fort Worth for 1-inch of snowfall

However, until stronger storm signals emerge, we won’t see much on the median snowfall percentile or probability maps aside from lighter totals.

Santa Ana Winds Continue to Pulse