February 2, 2024 Weekend Ahead
Atmospheric River may deliver over foot of rain to Southern California
Weather Trader | Friday Evening Update | Weekend Update
Mild weather across the southern U.S. from the Plains into the Southeast. 60s in the early evening feels wonderful. Even some 80s in South Texas along the Rio Grande. Warmth continues for the next 7-10 days until the “block breaks down” finally!
Slight risk of Severe weather currently across Texas as the “bowling ball” cut-off trough moves east. The severe risk evolves in marginal for Florida peninsula on Sunday. Thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico could be interesting with the highly divergent upper-level pattern. This is severe weather season across the Southeast U.S.
Quick update on the precipitation forecast from NOAA WPC for the next 5-days across California and then zoomed in on Los Angeles. Sadly, this will make for catastrophic flooding across a large area.
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Weekend High Temperatures
Saturday Highs | February 3, 2024
You can find some chilly air, or at least seasonable, over northern New England with highs in Maine in the 20s. Otherwise, 40s across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes are an astounding 15°F to 25°F above normal especially in the Dakotas. It could be -40°F rather than +40°F in early February.
Sunday Highs | February 4, 2024
Next 15-days Daily Temperature Anomaly
The block breaks down!
After long last, it appears there is a pattern shift on the way! Instead of cold in Alaska and Greenland and warmth centered upon Canada with the blocking ridge, the opposite pattern takes hold by mid-February. Bye bye Omega Block! Maybe the Groundhog was wrong?
7-day Total Precipitation from WPC
15-day Snowfall ECMWF EPS Median Accumulations
Not much has changed with the 15-day median snowfall forecasts — looking past mid-February for any sort of winter storm signal east of the Rockies.
Looking at 6-inch snowfall probability and the signal is < 20% from the Great Lakes to the Northeast except for some potential lake effect accumulations. This is pretty much a snow bust for 10-14 days, or longer. However, as the block breaks down, there’s a much better chance for winter storms and a more typical progressive upper-level pattern with the jet stream in the typical climatological location.
The Western U.S. ski resorts will be enjoying massive accumulations — full tilt!
Quick look at Boston and Chicago for snowfall chances to look for signals of “big systems” and a change from earlier today and yesterday: I see a handful of winter storms, which inputs into the probability maps to get 10-20% of 6-inches+.
(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)
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