February 16, 2025 Sunday Weather Update

Cutter system to plow through Mid-Atlantic with heavy wintry precipitation

Good Evening!

Quick update with a lot of maps to get ready for the upcoming week with major winter weather including a record-cold “Polar Vortex” outbreak and heavy snowfall through the center of the Lower 48 from Missouri to Maryland.

The models were split yesterday on the track of the low-pressure system upon emerging off the East Coast. GFS and ICON were out-to-sea, more of a cutter while ECMWF, GEM, and UKMET had blockbuster blizzard in the Northeast.

Well, the deterministic models in the latter batch trended significantly to the GFS/ICON solutions. Of course, we have ensembles to see just about any solution you want, but within 5-days, we should expect to see consistency with the main control models. That’s why we have multiple models — each has its advantages in different situations.

Next 7-days Gallery Snowfall [10:1 ratio]

ECMWF, GEM, UKMET

GFS 7-days gets the full map display! Note, this is dynamic ratios, not stuck on 10:1.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12”-18” in Kansas and Missouri.

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ECMWF Precipitation Typed QPF through 90-Hours

Snowfall — 1.0” to 2.0” of precipitation typed snowfall QPF in central to eastern North Carolina into Virginia.

Sleet / Ice Pellets south of the snowfall

Freezing rain — major problems with 1.0” to 1.5” QPF as FRZR

Precipitation Type at +82 Hours or around 11 PM Wednesday

Dynamic Snowfall From ECMWF 18z through 90-hours

I think this is the best way to display the expected snowfall according to the 1-hourly precipitation typed QPF. Large area of 12” to 18”

Details to be worked out!

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