December 29, 2023 Friday Update
End of the road on a very warm 2023
Wrapping up 2023 on a rather quiet note across the Lower 48. There is a shot at a powerful Nor’easter late next week, but really nothing until then major. The upper-level blocking or ridging across Arctic Canada remains firmly in charge. Until that spell can be broken, winter will not start in earnest across the U.S.
However, that doesn’t mean everywhere is enjoying balmy conditions. The U.S. is cold where it should be warm, warm where it should be cold. The result is a +6°F anomaly at 4 pm ET. The Southeast including Florida remains chilly. It is a gloomy, lousy day in Atlanta even with snow flurries in Northern Georgia. But, for Christmas and New Years’ travelers, aside from sick calls from airport employees on Tuesday, seems like the weather was largely not a concern.
Here is the aforementioned “monumental” blizzard over Nova Scotia next Friday. That would dump 2-feet on Maritime Canada. However, this track will be under further revision. I asked on X if people in New England want this bomb cyclone? Not so much.
Global Temperature Update For December
No doubt about the warmth in the Arctic and North America to go along with the El Nino in the tropics. However, Siberia and China saw a very brutal cold spell for 2-weeks earlier in the month to actually imprint below normal temperatures for the overall month.
The notion that global warming has “accelerated” has been argued by former NASA head climate scientist James Hansen. However, it is much too soon during the ongoing El Nino to declare some sort of new global warming regime.
As you can see from the high-frequency global temperature chart for the TROPICS, the recent El Nino caused a rapid spike in temperature a little higher than the late 2015-16 Nino. The timing of the onset probably makes the difference allowing the Atlantic to become much warmer than normal e.g. it was in a La Nina atmospheric state even through the first half of the hurricane season.
Saturday High Temperatures | December 30, 2023
Another chilly day across the southern U.S. but still unseasonably warm across the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. But that warmth is relative to late-December normals, which are cold. Just over 7 million people to see 70°F.
Sunday High Temperatures | December 31, 2023
A warming trend takes hold across Texas to Florida on Sunday, while the Midwest struggles in the 20s. It could certainly be much worse ending 2023.
Temperature Outlook Next 2 Weeks
This upside-down temperature pattern across North America will eventually break down with Canada cooling off with flow from the North Pole. However, the unusual configuration of the jet stream, with the subtropical jet dominating, will hold the Arctic blast potential in abeyance at least into Jan 10th or so. I think we need a powerful Nor’easter or blizzard to break up this winter slump!
Week 1: December 29, 2023 - January 5, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]
Week 2: January 5, 2024 - January 12, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
Good rainfall (+mountain snow) totals for California over the next week.
Quick look at global precipitation anomaly from EPS 12z through 15-days. You can see the tropical rainfall maximum just north of the Equator in the Central Pacific associated with convection over the El Nino warmed waters. In general, a lot of brown on the map, which makes sense when you consider the precipitation distribution at most places on Earth is skewed to the right, so it’s feast or famine, and % change from mean could be misleading!
Snowfall Forecast Next 15-days
First, the median snowfall amount over the next 7-days. The signal over Nova Scotia with the potential Nor’easter does show up.
Then, the full 15-days. The Western U.S. looks great overall. And, there is some Lake Effect snowfall on the map.
2024 Global Tropics
Ghost town: The lack of strong low-latitude tropical cyclones is certainly odd for a burgeoning El Niño.
All maps are probably from weathermodels.com (please subscribe there for affordable, professional, and beautiful weather maps created by yours truly).
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