December 11, 2023 Week Ahead

Extreme cold in Siberia spills into China

The most extreme winter weather is over Russia and Kazakhstan with severe cold spilling into Mongolia and China over the next 1-2 weeks. High pressure formed over Siberia and west of the Urals but could not sink southward to escape through Pakistan or Iran into the Indian Ocean. So, the cold air pool moves east into China affecting a significant chunk of the world’s population with much below normal temperatures.

This cold air mass will set the stage for enhancement of the Western Pacific jet stream over 200-knots in a streak off Japan. It will extend zonally to about the Dateline where Rossby wave breaking will spawn cut-off lows. This will shunt very warm air into North America with the Canadian Arctic blast factory shut off for the next 2-weeks.