August 9, 2024 Friday Tropical Update

Tropical wave likely to develop into hurricane by middle of next week

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Headlines for Friday

Debby is now accelerating NNE into Canada to finally be out of the picture for a beautiful weekend across the Northeast.

A [very] strong tropical wave will arrive near the Lesser Antilles in a few days with expectation that Ernesto will form by middle of next week. There is strong (ensemble) model support. NHC has increased chance of development to 60%. Most of the ECMWF ensemble guidance + HRES show an out-to-sea [recurve] solution of the strong Cape Verde (likely major) hurricane [Erneso] for mid-August, but we STILL can’t shut the door for a while (~3 days) until we know for sure especially when GFS shows a brush with the Carolinas in the longer range.