August 30, 2024 Friday Tropical Update

Disturbance waits a while to organize in Caribbean

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Atlantic Tropics continue to slumber

The monsoon trough has pulsed convection over the past 24-hours with some hints of organization. However, we won’t know until morning visible satellite imagery if any low-level circulations were spawned by the storms.

NHC still only has 40% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7-days, which gets us to next weekend.

An area of showers continues to swirl off the Houston coast, and it won’t really move for several days. Maybe something can spin up but the upper-level winds are not favorable. A wave in the eastern Atlantic is currently at 20% chance of development.

The models at 12z helped out quite a bit in the track of the disturbance through the Caribbean.

ECMWF HRES 10-Day IVT

ECMWF 12z develops the storm in the NW Caribbean in about 6-7 days, and sets up a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. This is obviously the worst-case scenario for any tropical system waiting to develop until it reaches the very warm waters of the NW Caribbean.