August 3, 2023 Hurricane Season

Looking toward week 2 in the Atlantic

Healthy tropical waves in the Eastern Atlantic MDR are sheared apart with the moisture, as seen from the ECMWF simulated water vapor imagery, stretching northward. Additionally, very unfavorable conditions aloft with troughing cutting into the tropics devour the waves. That’s not an active pattern at all for early August regardless of the health of the tropical waves emerging off of Africa.

Extended range Atlantic Tropics: Next 2-weeks

The ECMWF ensembles [August 3, 2023 00z] do have handful (less than 10) members developing a tropical wave that reaches the central MDR in 6-days. The tracks thereafter by Day 10.5 (August 14) end up off the U.S. southeast coast or Carolinas. The strong subtropical high in the Atlantic is large and in charge.