August 28, 2023 Hurricane Season

Idalia expected to reach major hurricane status prior to landfall

Aug 28, 2023

Top stories Monday morning:

(1) Tropical Storm Idalia is steadily intensifying in the NW Caribbean and nearing hurricane strength. Model and statistical guidance shows a Category 2 or 3 (major) hurricane at landfall in Florida. 100-knots is the first notch in Category 3. Rapid intensification chances are much higher than normal, no surprise over the very warm Gulf of Mexico. There is an increasing risk of a much more intense storm that indicated. Ominous messages from NHC for Idalia’s impact to Florida [8 AM ET]

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHEN IT NEARS WESTERN 
CUBA LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...

(2) Extreme heat finally has broken in Dallas and New Orleans. After all-time historical record highs in the 100s and 110s, temperatures are settling back into the 90s. The Great Lakes and Northeast remain comfortably in the 70s and 80s.

Dallas: 94°F, New Orleans: 95°F, Atlanta: 91°F

Monday High Temperatures | National Blend of Models | weathermodels.com

(3) Hurricane Franklin is now 130-mph (942 mb pressure) the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season and expected to become Category 4 later on Monday. Franklin will miss Bermuda to the north and west.

Tropical Storm Idalia

NHC 8 AM ET updated track brings the center of Idalia as a major hurricane west of Tampa Bay at 1 AM Wednesday. There is another 6-12 hours before landfall of additional intensification. The landfall intensity is currently forecast to be at least 100-knots (Category 3).

Threats: Rainfall and flooding: 8-inches of rainfall expected near the core of Idalia in the Taylor and Dixie County coastline of Florida’s Big Bend with about 3” in Tallahassee and 4” in Jacksonville and Gainesville. Locally, one can expect these precipitation totals to be significantly more in stronger bands.

Winds: Hurricane force winds and stronger gusts will extend about 50-75 miles away from the center of Idalia. The current NWS maximum forecast wind gusts is not continuous but shows the snapshot location of Idalia every 6-hours. I see 74-mph winds over Jacksonville, and up to 100-115 mph gusts at landfall. This map will be refined and updated over the next 24-hours.

Peak storm surge: Tampa Bay to see 4 to 7 feet of storm surge. Up the coast in the Big Bend 7 to 11 feet.

Short term Atlantic Tropics

Major Hurricane Franklin was visited by aircraft recon and found to be 110-knots (942 mb) early Monday morning. The track of Franklin is also important for Idalia as the large moves and shakers in the tropics and subtropics are all interacting. A slight change in the location of a ridge relative to Franklin could affect the steering or slow / speed up Idalia. Large waves and swell will impact the East Coast, but not as bad since the track of Franklin is to the North and then ENE.