August 2, 2024 Friday Potential Tropical Cyclone 04L

NHC starts advisories on system expected to become Tropical Storm Debby this weekend in Gulf of Mexico

Headline for Friday morning:

Intensifying tropical storm / low-end hurricane [Debby] possible into Big Bend of Florida later on Sunday. Thereafter, the system could re-intensify off the Carolinas with potential further land impacts.

NHC has bumped up the development chance to 90% and started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone (04L). Advisories are issued when a system is expected to develop and threaten land usually within the next 48-hours. The next name is Debby.

PTC 04L is poorly organized but generating showers and storms around and over Cuba. Once the center can reach the Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico, low pressure will likely consolidate into a center and parallel the West Florida peninsula coastline through the weekend. Intensity at landfall is forecast to be at least 55-knots but could certainly be a low-end Category 1 hurricane.

IR Satellite

NHC has the center of 04L over Cuba, so any development would not occur until it crosses back over the ocean.

ECMWF 00z HRES Model Solution | Next 8-days