April 6, 2024 Plains Storm with Hurricane Force Wind Gusts

CSU Atlantic hurricane forecast is hyper-active for upcoming season

Colorado State University April 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast outlook:

Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

1. Tropical Storms: 23 | avg = 14.4

2. Hurricanes: 11 | avg = 7.2

3. Major Hurricanes: 5 | avg = 3.2

4. ACE: 210 | avg = 123

   Average based upon 1991-2020 historical activity