April 4, 2024 Nor'easter Won't Quit

Quiet weather across Central U.S. + Eclipse forecast looking up

Working on an update on Colorado State’s seasonal hurricane forecast, but waiting for the ECMWF seasonal forecast to arrive tomorrow on the April 5th. Should have that seasonal update + CSU Atlantic hurricane update delivered to [paid] subscribers by Friday evening or early on Saturday.

Quick look at the 15-day upper-level pattern from the ECMWF AIFS 12z showing the eventual development of an Eastern Ridge next weekend and then a Western Ridge by the end of the 2-weeks. In between, lobes of the polar vortex cut-off like bowling balls through the southern U.S. — any which of these could be the focus mechanism for severe weather.

ECMWF AIFS 12z | 500 hPa Height Anomaly

The next 48-hours from HRRR showing the Nor’easter still spinning on Saturday! It loops back for a final brush by of Boston — to say goodbye on Sunday. Ugly!