April 28, 2025 Monday Severe Weather

Regional severe weather outbreak in the Midwest

Good Morning!

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Today’s main story will be a conditional severe weather outbreak across the Midwest with the potential for strong tornadoes.

Current radar shows leftover rain and storms from last night moving through Minnesota into Wisconsin with a wrap-around band of rain in the Dakotas. The atmosphere will clear and warm quite a bit during the day setting the stage for convective initiation later in the afternoon.

HRRR next 18-hours through 3 AM ET on Tuesday

Both of these loops are for the same time period.

The development of supercells will occur in multiple locations within the warm sector and produce severe conditions (hail, winds, tornado) for 4-6 hours before fizzling out. These storms do not look to organize into a MCS or squall line except in broken pieces.

MIDWEST

GREAT LAKES

Storms will cross Lake Michigan in two waves into the overnight hours and race across Northern Michigan first. Then, later on Tuesday, another weaker batch of storms will come across the lake for the morning.

RRFS 11z through 1 AM on Tuesday

RRFS-A is the experimental mesoscale model that may replace HRRR in the coming year(s). The convective initiation and evolution is similar to HRRR. Easiest way to eyeball the model similarity is to look at Maximum Radar during the model cycle (11z)

RRFS vs. HRRR Maximum Radar next 18-hours

I’d note that RRFS is more robust / aggressive with convection especially in the Southeast today.