April 27, 2025 Severe Weather Supplemental

Conditional regional severe storms in the Midwest later on Monday

Quick update on Monday’s expected severe weather outbreak.

Currently a huge supercell in Western Nebraska that’s turning into a little MCS. A small tornado watch box was put up around the storm and into South Dakota.

In the overnight hours, that storm complex in Nebraska moves into South Dakota and organizes into a squall line into northern and central Minnesota through Monday morning.

HRRR next 18-hours through 1 PM ET on Monday

Then, looking ahead until 9 PM ET on Monday, the Mesoscale models (HRRR and RRFS) are only hinting at supercell development that would verify the Moderate Risk put up by SPC. Thus, it’s a Conditional Risk:

RRFS and HRRR 9 pm ET on Monday

RRFS and HRRR 9 PM ET Monday

RRFS-A Monday evening to early Wednesday (+24 to +60 Hours)