June 22, 2026 Monday Summer Weather
Warming trend into early July with potential for Eastern U.S. heat dome for 4th of July
Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days
During the months of June and July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.
While the African dust plumes expected over the next 7-days aren’t too intense, NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Eastern Atlantic by early July.
Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust
This is forecast post number 965: Day 173 of 2026. Day 22 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Evening!
Welcome to all new and returning subscribers! We keep track of the daily weather across the Lower 48, and sometimes around the world.
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon
Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human — Ryan) and not A.I. although you can chip in a Starbucks each month for more Claude Max (tokens!)
Scattered thunderstorms in the foothills of the Rockies. Severe weather moved through NYC, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. earlier this evening.
Radar through 8:30 PM ET (earlier)
Scattered severe storms across northern Alabama and north Georgia with more firing along a boundary back into central Mississippi — a new line will form into overnight hours.
NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Thursday Evening
The rain in the Mid-Atlantic includes the ongoing storms.
My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water
After the storm system moves through the Southeast along the frontal boundary, much drier air digs southward all the way into North Florida.
Weather Into Tuesday Morning
HRRR Forecast Radar into Tuesday Noon ET
HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Wednesday 2 PM ET
Weather on Tuesday — Cold front dips almost to the Gulf Coast
Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 10-days
More rainfall for corridor from Kansas City to Indianapolis
Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
The magnitude of the tropical moisture feed into the USA from the Caribbean and Gulf is dialed down/back significantly as ridging strengthens over the Southeast U.S. —> heat dome?
Update: Yes, we can see the anticyclonic turning of the ridge centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley with limited moisture transport —> really going to heat up for early July.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
Generally 1.8” (yellow) PWAT with embedded > 2” convective cells = heavy downpours across Central U.S. into the Southeast.
Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 7:30 PM ET
About 60 million population at least 90°F at 7:30 PM ET
Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 7:30 PM ET
Lower 48 was -1.4°F below normal with rain cooled air along the frontal boundary
High Temperatures Next 8-Days —> Wednesday July 1st
Trend to much hotter temperatures across the board into early July with 100s building across all of Texas with the much dryer conditions. Southeast including Atlanta and Carolinas push well into the 90s, and even 100s in the Carolinas.
With less tropical moisture plume activity from the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see much warmer temperatures and lower rain chances —> warming trend into 4th of July.
237 million+ at least 90°F by June 30th with Lower 48 average high of 86.5°F
Low Temperatures on Tuesday
Windows open across the Midwest and Great Lakes into New England —> perfect sleeping weather!
mid-40s in Northern Michigan
High Temperatures on Tuesday
103 million at least 90°F and 16 million at least 100°F in Texas and the Southwest. Comfortable in the 70s from Montana into the Great Lakes and Northeast
The 70s are in some places 10°F below normal for high temperatures. The 90s in the Pacific Northwest are 20°F above average. Tuesday High Temperature Anomaly:
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
Very strong troughing digs into the Pacific Northwest in the medium range = much cooler across the Western U.S. with potential for mountain snow into early July.
Ridging builds across the Eastern U.S. —> dry and heating up especially across the Southeast
Into Summer —> Height Anomalies don’t tell entire story … actual height helps!
Same story as yesterday: 594 dm —> 597 dm (or higher) contours pop up across the U.S. border in AZ/NM and then in the Southeast … trending warmer —> maybe a more typical “heat dome” centered over the Southeast into early July.
European Heat Dome Next 10-days centered Western Europe — moves eastward into Germany and Poland … and still watching potential for another event in 10-days west of the U.K. which could push over Isles.
106°F in Berlin maximum this weekend! Some ensembles are even hotter!
HOT with 99°F to 103°F in Paris maximum Wednesday to Saturday. Brutal!
93°F in London from Wednesday to Saturday — a bit lower than yesterday’s forecasts
Temperature Anomaly next 12-days
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days
Trough —> cooler across the Pacific Northwest with huge negative anomalies of -20°F vs. the formation of a ridge into later June and HEAT across the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic + Canada
Week 1 —> June 22 to June 28
Cool 7-days ahead for Midwest and Great Lakes — no complaints
Week 2 —> June 29 to July 5
Pattern flip with trough in the NW and Western U.S. —> cooler than normal with much warmer than normal into 4th of July east of the Rockies —> trending HOTTER
Atlantic Basin — Very Quiet through end of June 2026
Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active for certain in the Atlantic. These waves move into the Eastern Pacific but marginally favorable conditions (30%)
SST Temperature Analysis — still sub-26°C over half of the MDR east of 50°W
And, that area is much cooler than the last 30-years climatology. Northwest Atlantic is also very chilly — SST Anomaly
Satellite Imagery — not much active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics
Ensemble Storm Tracks Next 15-days —> Complete Ghost Town in Atlantic
2 Tropical Waves in Eastern Pacific with Low Chance (30%) in coming week
Western Pacific Typhoon Season
Typhoon MEKKHALA peaked around 125-knots, and is now dealing with dry air on the poleward side with some erosion of the northern eyewall
Slow weakening will continue as Mekkhala turns to the north and reaches near Tokyo in 5-days
Google Deep Mind Tracks
A new Tropical Depression 08W formed out of the invest we watched yesterday. It will become a mid-range tropical storm. No threat to land.
Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks
Long track, powerful Typhoon coming out of the far eastern part of the basin near the Dateline is typical of El Niño summers —> Lots of ACE
Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the beautiful weather maps. Please help increase the visibility of Weather Trader on Substack: Share or Like!
Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon
Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast